CRITICAL ASSESSMENT OF THE MUNICIPAL CAPACITY INDICATOR (ICM) APPLIED TO THE STATE OF PARANÁ: IDENTIFICATION OF GAPS IN LOW-SCORING PRIORITY MUNICIPALITIES AND THE RELATIONSHIP WITH SOCIOECONOMIC PARAMETERS

Abstract

This article presents a critical assessment of the Municipal Capacity Indicator (ICM), a tool established by the Ministry of Integration and Regional Development to measure the preparedness of municipalities in facing natural disasters. The research aims to analyze the applicability of the ICM in municipalities in the State of Paraná classified as priorities in lists C and D, identifying structural gaps and relating them to socioeconomic parameters, especially the Municipal Human Development Index (MHDI). The methodology includes document analysis, cross-referencing official data, and applying clustering techniques based on impact indicators and institutional capacity. The results show low adherence to essential ICM variables, such as technical training, risk planning, and community integration, as well as inconsistencies in prioritization criteria. The combined analysis of ICM and MHDI reveals that municipal vulnerability is strongly associated with institutional fragility and social inequalities. It is concluded that the articulated use of indicators and the continuous updating of disaster records are fundamental for a fairer, more effective, and preventive risk management.